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2020 Oscar Predictions, Best Picture Indicators, Acting, and Best Picture

By: Henry J. Fromage –

Here we are, the big categories.  This year feels like it can and/or should more open-ended than some of the recent races- and I’m not complaining about that.

Best Director

  1. Martin Scorcese
  2. Sam Mendes
  3. Quentin Tarantino
  4. Bong Joon-ho
  5. Greta Gerwig

This feels like it’s really a question of the fifth spot- seeing any of the first four miss, who’ve helmed the four likeliest Best Picture winners, would be a bit of a shock.  The other slot may go to the other Best Picture contenders in the rough order of Noah Baumbach, Taika Waititi, and Todd Phillips, but I’m predicting/hoping for Gerwig to get her due for the exquisite Little Women.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Todd Phillips & Scott Silver, Joker
  2. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
  3. Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes
  4. Greta Gerwig, Little Women
  5. Steve Zaillian, The Irishman

This grouping feels pretty solid, with really only A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and the pretty under the radar Dark Waters potentially playing spoilers (which I wouldn’t at all mind in the first case, but Neighborhood has been a surprising afterthought this season).

 

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  2. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
  3. Rian Johnson, Knives Out
  4. Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite
  5. Lulu Wang, The Farewell

This feels like the more stacked screenwriting category this year.  If 1917 gets a nom, it’s likely to be one of a landslide total, while  Booksmart and Us feel like contenders for that well-liked consolation prize slot I currently have Knives Out in.

 

Best Actor

  1. Joaquin Phoenix
  2. Adam Driver
  3. Leonardo DiCaprio
  4. Taron Egerton
  5. Antonio Banderas

This really feels like Phoenix’s year, but Driver and DiCaprio have been in practically every precursor this year and Egerton’s been gaining steam quickly.  Banderas has been losing ground on the flip side, so any of Jonathan Pryce, Eddie Murphy, Adam Sandler (pretty please), Robert DeNiro, Christian Bale, or even George MacKay in another 1917 landslide indicator could overtake him.

 

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Brad Pitt
  2. Joe Pesci
  3. Al Pacino
  4. Tom Hanks
  5. Anthony Hopkins

Pitt’s starting to feel like a front-runner, and I won’t be the one to break up Pesci and Pacino (although it does feel weird they’re viewed as near locks while DeNiro is on the outside looking in of the Best Actor race- maybe he should stop doing SNL).  If not Hanks and Hopkins, Willem Dafoe and Jamie Foxx feel like the next two likeliest, although Parasite‘s Song Kang-ho would be amazing to see get in.

 

Best Actress

  1. Charlize Theron
  2. Scarlett Johansson
  3. Cynthia Erivo
  4. Saoirse Ronan
  5. Renee Zellweger

This is a pretty stacked category again this year, and outside of Zellweger, it feels like each of the others have both achieved universal acclaim and are susceptible to Awkwafina or Lupita Nyong’o knocking them out of the race.

 

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Laura Dern
  2. Margot Robbie
  3. Jennifer Lopez
  4. Florence Pugh
  5. Scarlett Johansson

I have ScarJo as a double nominee, although not Robbie like the BAFTAs did.  Dern and Lopez have traded the top spot back and forth all season, and Pugh has had too amazing of a year to ignore, but that doesn’t mean Kathy Bates, Annette Bening, Nicole Kidman, or Zhao Shuzhen won’t squeeze in.  This is probably your most competitive category of the year.

 

Best Picture

  1. The Irishman
  2. Parasite
  3. 1917
  4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  5. Marriage Story
  6. JoJo Rabbit
  7. Joker
  8. Little Women

I think it’s becoming clear that 7-8 nominees is the sweet spot of the new system, and I’m going to lean to the side of more than less.  This year feels a bit more solidified than last as far as a slate of nominees goes, and it would be a genuine surprise to see any of the top 5, and probably even the top 7 miss out.

So that leaves us with one slot in this scenario fought over between my favorite (which means little) Little Women and in basic order of precursor hype: Ford v Ferrari, Bombshell, The Farewell, The Two Popes, and Knives Out.  I almost wish we could go back to a solid 10 nominees now that the Academy has more or less proven it can handle it and put no more Extremely Loud and Incredibly Closes in there, but it’s inevitable a few excellent films will be on the outside looking in.  Tomorrow morning at 5:18 am Pacific Time, we’ll find out.

About Henry J. Fromage

Movieboozer is a humor website and drinking games are intended for entertainment purposes only, please drink responsibly.

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