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2019 Oscar Predictions, Best Picture Indicators, Acting, and Best Picture

By: Henry J. Fromage –

Here we are, the big categories.  This year feels like it can and/or should more open-ended than some of the recent races, perhaps even as much as Spotlight‘s 2016 2-statue victory.

Best Director

  1. Alfonso Cuaron
  2. Bradley Cooper
  3. Yorgos Lanthimos
  4. Debra Granik
  5. Ryan Coogler

Any of the top three missing out would be quite shocking as they represent your likely three best shots at winning the whole shebang.  After that there’s lots of interesting directions the category could go in- a Chazelle/Jenkins rematch, Ryan Coogler or Spike Lee, or Debra Granik/Marielle Heller/Lynne Ramsay adding a 5th female director… in history.  Or, you know, somebody like Peter Farrelly or Adam McKay getting in.  There’s no real safe money so perhaps I’m just being aspirational here.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. If Beale Street Could Talk- Barry Jenkins
  2. Can You Ever Forgive Me?- Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
  3. A Star is Born- Eric Roth, Will Fetters, Bradley Cooper
  4. BlackKklansman- Spike Lee, Kevin Willmott, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel
  5. Leave No Trace- Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini

While not a lot of folks have A Star is Born comfortably in the race, the Best Picture correlation between screenwriting and Best Picture is stark and it’s be a surprise to see it miss.  The other 3 of the top 4 are comfortable bets, and Leave No Trace feels like wildcard pick we usually get, although don’t count out Crazy Rich Asians.

 

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Roma- Alfonso Cuaron
  2. The Favourite- Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
  3. First Reformed- Paul Schrader
  4. Eighth Grade- Bo Burnham
  5. Vice- Adam McKay

Sorry to Bother You sure would be great, and Green Book has a good chance still despite its fading fortunes, but this group of five feels about as likely a category for me to sweep as any this year.

 

Best Actor

  1. Bradley Cooper
  2. Christian Bale
  3. Rami Malek
  4. Willem Dafoe
  5. Viggo Mortensen

The top two are your likely tusslers for the win here, but this feels like a more wide-open field than we’ve seen in several years in the category.  Ethan Hawke could very likely usurp anyone after Bale, and John David Washington is gaining steam.  Finally, both Robert Redford and Ryan Gosling felt like shoo-ins not even a month ago and could very well make a push.

 

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mahershala Ali
  2. Richard E. Grant
  3. Sam Elliott
  4. Timothee Chalamet
  5. Adam Driver

This one has apparently been the most locked in during the precursor season, but it sure would be great to see the best part of Black Panther, the impossibly charismatic Michael B. Jordan, or critic faves Sam Rockwell, Steve Yeun, Daniel Kaluuya, or Brian Tyree Henry sneak in.

 

Best Actress

  1. Olivia Colman
  2. Lady Gaga
  3. Glenn Close
  4. Melissa McCarthy
  5. Yalitza Aparicio

What an utter and absolute embarrassment of riches this year.  The base of support is so broad and the contenders so qualified that it would be both shocking and unsurprising to see any of these deserving ladies miss, but it would be especially so for the top two.  After that, it feels like the perennially snubbed Glenn Close is safe, but well, there’s that whole perennially snubbed bit.  I’d say Melissa McCarthy knocked it out of the park in the role of a lifetime, but there’s Yalitza Aparicio right below her.  Either could be susceptible to the always popular but never Oscar-nominated Emily Blunt, or the always dangerous Saoirse Ronan and Viola Davis, and gosh, did I mention Nicole freakin’ Kidman, Toni Collette (wouldn’t that be great?), Felicity Jones, or Rosamund Pike?

 

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Emma Stone
  2. Rachel Weisz
  3. Amy Adams
  4. Regina King
  5. Claire Foy

This is quite as stacked as Best Actress (which may be a good sign for progressive Hollywood?), but there’s going to be at least a snub or two at this point.  I’m predicting it’s Margot Robbie, Nicole Kidman, Thomasin McKenzie, Michelle Yeoh, and Elizabeth Debicki on the outside looking in, but outside of probably our The Favourite favorites, anybody above could be susceptible.

 

Best Picture

  1. A Star is Born
  2. Roma
  3. The Favourite
  4. Black Panther
  5. BlacKkKlansman
  6. If Beale Street Could Talk
  7. Green Book
  8. Bohemian Rhapsody
  9. Vice

In a year without clear favorites and a voting body that’s getting more diverse in their tastes every year, this year feels like the one where we might buck the trend and end up with at least 9 nominees, if not 10 (but I’m not going that far).  Your top three are stone cold locks, and the likely films with a real chance of winning.

The next two films have really solidified their positions in a way that might have felt risk to predict when they came out, but I can’t see them missing nominations.  Despite it’s lack of precursor love, perhaps due to its late arrival in the season, If Beale Street Could Talk feels like it would be an odd miss as well.

After that just about anything can happen.  Despite some ups and downs after its promising debut, I think old guard pick Green Book gets in, and despite it’s very deservedly lukewarm reception, Bohemian Rhapsody has some crazy momentum on its side right now.  That leaves us with two films that seemed like possibilities to win it all when they first came out in First Man and Vice.  I’m picking the latter in a contest between new and old Academy tendencies, but the former, or Mary Poppins Returns, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, First Reformed, Leave No Trace, or even Crazy Rich Asians or Eighth Grade could all surprise.  It’s been quite a year.

About Henry J. Fromage

Movieboozer is a humor website and drinking games are intended for entertainment purposes only, please drink responsibly.

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