By: Henry J. Fromage –
The Golden Globes happened, and they were… Golden Globesy. How’d they impact dat race, though?
Also, we cut down the field by a whopping 5 films, ’cause I said so.
Oscar Power Rankings
1. La La Land
In the bag? Oh, most Golden Globes wins ever? Yeah.
Despite BAFTA’s utter head-scratching choice of Tom Ford (or, more Britishly, Ken Loach) over Barry Jenkins for its Best Director noms, this is still comfortably number two.
3. Manchester By the Sea
Nah, BAFTA’s clear preference for this film doesn’t elevate it above Moonlight, which may force another Picture/Director split. I mean, BAFTA’s never nominated Denzel Washington… ever. I wonder if they write Film Industry Racism thinkpieces in Britain…
4. Arrival (+2)
The momentum has been building for this film. Its 7 BAFTA nominations have a good chance of being matched with 7 Oscar nominations.
5. Hell or High Water (-1)
The Producer’s Guild pick seals the deal for this film’s Best Picture nominee chances.
6. Lion (-1)
I just saw this, and was extremely pleasantly surprised. I have a feeling it will have the emotional impact it did for me for many a voter. Producer’s Guild pick certainly helps as well.
7. Fences (-1)
Denzel snubbing aside, this is doing what it needs to in order to secure a nomination. How many wins it’s really got a shot at outside of Viola’s lock is the real question.
8. Hidden Figures (+2)
Golden Globe portmanteau snafus aside, this film opened wide as successfully as any in the race last weekend. A real player.
9. Hacksaw Ridge (+3)
Here’s where it gets real. The Producers Guild nominated 10 films, which has a great correlation with Best Picture nominees since the expansion to (potentially 10, in on average 8 films). So, if we go with 8, what falls out? I’m betting right now on this, and, of course, Deadpool.
10. Nocturnal Animals (+5)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s Golden Globe win shows there are plenty in Hollywood who dig their Tom Ford. Still don’t think it’s enough, but it’s within striking distance of a nom.
11. Sully (-2)
The Producers Guild miss is probably the spike in the heart. I’m frankly floored- it’s still your #1 grossing contender.
12. Silence (-7)
I wondered to what extent this would connect with Awards folk in my last column, and I think we have our answer- not to much of one.
13. Jackie (-2)
Just keeps missing where it needs to hit. Natalie Portman’s in. Is anything else?
14. 20th Century Women
Doing pretty well in the box office for its size, but no major awards attention.
15. Loving (-2)
Still hoping on top of hope that Negga and Edgerton get in, because it’s really a travesty if they don’t.
Off the List
A Monster Calls
An absolutely spectacular film, as I heard way back during festival season. Just hasn’t made a mark with audiences or awards groups, though.
Still holding out hope for a Jarmusch screenplay nom.
Florence Foster Jenkins
Meryl is Meryl, but that does not a Best Picture contender make.
I don’t understand why this one didn’t get a bigger push, but it certainly didn’t get enough of one.
Quite a year for Berg and Marky-Mark, but neither this nor Deepwater Horizon were taken seriously enough in the end.
The Dark Knight couldn’t even do it. C’mon.