By: Henry J. Fromage –
I watched La La Land.
Oscar Power Rankings
1. La La Land
In the bag.
In terms of pure number of nominations, this is still the film to beat, and its social significance in a year like we just had might sway Oscar voters from their normal patterns. Might.
3. Manchester By the Sea
The third of what has solidified into a triptych of front-runners this year, this film will do just fine, but would have to get quite the boost to make it to the top of the heap.
4. Hell or High Water
This seems to be the most consistently loved of the next tier of films, and for good reason.
It’s hard to say to what extent this film will connect, but it’s Scorcese, and in a weak year at that.
6. Arrival (+5)
While it’s not a good sign it didn’t get that Golden Globe Drama nod, there’s also zero voter cross-over. It’s always one of the biggest nomination-getters at each of the precursor awards so far.
This is still a Hollywood royalty passion project with huge visibility and ace performances.
The noms have been there just as Weinstein’s drawn it out, I’m sure. Don’t sleep on this one.
9. Sully (-3)
After missing out with both SAG and the Globes, the year’s highest grossing Awards contender is in danger of slipping out of the field altogether.
10. Hidden Figures (-1)
Next week, when it goes wide, will tell us a lot, but its got the proper ingredients for a middle of the road last entry into a Best Picture field.
11. Jackie (-1)
Just saw this, too, and loved it. But man, is it not the typical biopic cup of tea, and I’m not sure how many voters can stomach it.
12. Hacksaw Ridge
The big pop-up contender in the race, this film just keeps getting precursor nominations. Can’t count it out.
This should at least land a couple of acting nominations, but even those are in doubt, insane as that should be.
14. Nocturnal Animals (+9)
The other film that has had a lot more staying power than you’d expect in the race, maybe Tom Ford will give out enough perfume to sneak in.
15. 20th Century Women (-1)
Much more low-profile than it needs to be, but yet to expand wide, either.
16. Patriot’s Day (+1)
Peter Berg still is dreaming those Lone Survivor dreams, not that that one did that great at the Oscars, either.
17. The Founder (+1)
I still have the highest of high hopes for this one, but it’s not getting the campaign it may deserve.
18. Florence Foster Jenkins (+2)
Meryl Streep is hungry, oh so hungry.
19. Paterson (+5)
Let’s see if Jarmusch gets that writing nom that’s eluded him for so long.
20. A Monster Calls (+5)
Probably my most anticipated January new release, but going to need quite the box office boost.
The Jungle Book, Love & Friendship, The Lobster, Toni Erdmann, Elle
Off the List
The Birth of a Nation
If this was 1997.
Got pushed twice. That doesn’t happen to real contenders.
Already gone from theaters, already forgotten.
Live By Night
The reviews have not been kind. Affleck’s first directorial misstep?